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HomeMy WebLinkAbout4-Hastings Diversity Gap Conversation Starter 2016.11.07Demographic and Socio-Economic Indicators for Dakota County and Hastings November 7, 2016 Presented by: Jane Vanderpoel Management Analyst III Dakota County Office of Performance and Analysis Photo: a field in Lebanon Hills Park just south of former Parkview Golf Course, looking toward the golf course. Thanks for opportunity to talk to you about demographics and socio-economic measures. We keep many of these measures updated on our Community Indicators website but they’re for the countywide level. Where possible, usually tried to find data specific to Hastings (city, not school district). Elevator speech – OPA Questions – ask as we go along. Much of the data you’re about to see are indicators or measures that we keep track of for our Board of Commissioners, who are very interested in making decisions based on thoughtful discussion when they have the facts in front of them. And as long as we collect it and we’re paid by taxpayers, we think we ought to also make it available to the general public in as many ways as possible. Quick check of audience for me – Raise hands if you live in DC Raise hands if you work in DC Audience reactions to these socio-economic measures are interesting because it all depends on your perspective, and who you spend your time with. Business groups are always amazed at the poverty level, for example, while people who work with clients and those who are low income, are always surprised at the median income level of the county. I think all of us are better off if we know more about the broader community that we live or work in. 1 Data sources used in this presentation US census National headcount – all in Only once in ten years 10 very basic questions 222222 American Community Survey Annual survey, 3 million across country (4,000 – Dakota Cty) Caution: Margin of Error for small population segments Yearly only for large areas (65,000+) < 65,000 (all cities, townships) = every five years – latest for 2010-2014 won’t be out for another month. Others: MN Compass, Metropolitan Council, state agencies Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 2 Much of the data in this presentation comes from the Census, American Community Survey, MN Compass, the Metropolitan Council or a state agency. ACS – like a little brother to the US Census. The most recent data released in September through December, now 2015. Through 2000 census, 1 in 6 HH received long form w/socio-economic questions – household income, languages spoken, commuting habits, number of BR in home, etc. After the 2000 Census, the CB “de-coupled” the socio-economic data collection from the census and started doing it continuously and summarizing the data annually. They send out surveys at a rate of 1 in 40 – HH annually, means 4,000 sent to DC and about 80+% are returned. For geographic places over 65,000 – get data annually from survey, but usually 12-18 months old. For communities over 20,000, used to be able to get three years of data analyzed as a pool, so 3x as many survey responses as the annual data. CB cut that due to budget cuts. So now, for places with population under 65,000 – which is every municipality in our County – we have to rely on 5 years of survey data summarized. That won’t be out for another month, so best we can do right now is (2010-2014) . ______________________________________________________________________________________________ Caution – when we look at data for the county as a whole, margin of error usually quite small because the confidence level is high for more than 3,000 returned surveys as a representative sample for the County as a whole. But MOE gets much bigger when look at specific characteristics of specific segments of the population. We have done a lot of work in the last couple of years on the acheivement gap between Whites and non-White race groups. When we do that, we usually look at all of the race categories and Hispanics as one People of Color group because when we looked at individual race groups, the margin of error was too big to give us an accurate picture. In a County where 80% of the population is White, we believed it would be misleading to try to show comparisons with individual race groups – even the largest that we have – because the margin of error is too high when we talk about a fraction of a fraction. 2 Highlights Demographics Economics Housing And a few more Quick Quiz: What is the total population for Dakota County and Hastings? What percentage of residents are non-white? Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 3 3 Dakota County’s population continues to grow, but more slowly during last 15 years New growth is mostly in third-ring suburbs and smaller cities (Hastings, Farmington, Lakeville) Diversity is increasing, especially among children Proportion of seniors is increasing quickly as the proportion of children is decreasing Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 4 Context: Dakota County Demographic Trends Photo: snow-covered walking bridge over a ravine in Spring Lake Park near the Gathering Center 4 2014 Metro Counties Population Share Our share of the metro area population still around 14% Dakota County is the third-biggest county (in population) in Minnesota; Hennepin and Ramsey counties are bigger. Together, the seven metropolitan-area counties now comprise about 55% of the total population in MN. 8.4% 11.5% 17.8% 40.6% of total metro population 3.3% 4.7% 13.8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2014 population estimates Map credit: Dakota County GIS staff Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 5 Quiz Question – does anybody know Dakota County’s current population? (about 415,000). Fun fact: this is a shade bigger than the population of the city of Minneapolis. For at least the last 15 years, Dakota County’s piece of the population pie among metro counties has not shifted away from around 14%. The Census Bureau prepares population estimates for cities, counties, states across the country every Spring. Their estimates are pegged to the middle of the previous year. To do so, they examine the number births, the number of deaths, and the number of people who have moved in and out of the county, which is known as migration. The percentages shown on this chart represent the share of the population for each county of the metro area as a whole, according to the most recent US Census Bureau estimates. Another fun fact: Of the 3,141 counties across the nation for which the CB did 2014 estimates, DC has the 167th largest population. The parallel population estimate is completed for the metro-area counties by the Metropolitan Council and by the state Demographer’s Office for the remaining 80 counties. The Met Council pegs its estimate to April 1 of each year and uses a completely different methodology. It is somewhat surprising then, that the CB and METC estimates are often very close, though more divergent as we move towards the end of the decade just before the new decennial census. In 2014, the two were about ¼ of one percentage point different. 5 Context: Metro Counties Population Growth is slowing in most metro area counties Source: U.S. Census Bureau Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 6 This chart shows population for the seven metro counties plus the state of MN for 2000, 2010 and the new estimates for 2015 that were released by the Census Bureau last spring. The estimated population for Dakota County for 2015 is almost 415,000 – quiz question. You can see that Hastings is now just under 23,000 in total population. Dakota County has been growing about 1% per year for the last decade or so, which is quite a bit slower than its historic growth. The green-shaded column shows the % growth in the 15 years since the 2000 census. Carver and Scott, which have the smallest populations of the 7 metro counties, are growing the fastest when measured by percentage of growth, not by actual numbers of people. Ramsey County actually lost people between 2000 and 2010, but has started to grow slowly again during this decade. Some of Hennepin County’s growth can be attributed to millennials moving into new apartments and condos in downtown Minneapolis. This slower growth trend is not unique to DC or even to MN. Predicted growth depends on many factors, including birth and death rates, immigration rates, even the health of the economy. 6 Dakota Cty Cities’ Population Growth, 2000-2015 Lakeville leads in number, Farmington in % growth Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 7 Dakota County as a whole hasn’t had very quick population growth in the last 15 years, but the major cities in Dakota County are growing at quite varying rates. The city of Mendota Heights has actually lost population – probably due to the trend of seniors losing spouses over the time period, and younger people leaving home, so there are more empty-nester homes. On the other hand, Rosemount and Lakeville are growing very quickly though Farmington, which was one of our smallest cities, leads the pack with almost 80% growth. As we saw in the previous chart, Hastings is among the cities growing quickly. 7 Dakota County Diversity People of Color are now more than 20% of population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 8 Intro slide quiz question answer: about one-fifth of the County’s population is diverse. Going strictly by race, the % people who are diverse is about 12%. But when we talk about diverse communities and people of color, we count Hispanics among them – note that being Hispanic is a matter of ethnicity, not race. Most people who are Latino or Hispanic in MN report themselves as White. Our white-only population (non-Hispanic) is just under 80% and our total diverse population is just over 20%, more than double the % in 2000. The city of Hastings has a much lower percentage of people of color – well under 10%. But like the County, that percentage has doubled in 15 years. 8 Dakota County Cities: Diversity Hastings has much less racial diversity than DC or MN Source: U.S. Census 2010 Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 9 This data is from the 2010 Census, so it’s a little dated, but it shows with a wide range of diversity within our cities, ranging from 6% to more than 22%. The most racially diverse of our communities were and still are Burnsville and West St. Paul, with an estimate of about a quarter of the population non-white. Those with the least diversity are Hastings and Mendota Heights. In the most recent data from the Census Bureau, Hastings has an estimated white-alone (non-Hispanic) population of 92.5% or a diverse population of 7.5%; more half of that diversity is Hispanics, who are estimated at 3.8% of the population The census bureau, the met council and the state demographer’s office all expect our diverse population in Dakota County to double over the next 20 years. The State Demographer projects that 80 percent of the additional 103,000 increase in population between 2005 and 2035 in Dakota County will be accounted for in nonwhite populations. This is partly because a greater share of the non-white populations are in their child-bearing years. As a regional view, the METC forecasts going from 24% people of color in 2010 to 40% in 2040. 9 Heat maps series – showing population concentration for People of Color The next four maps were made by the Metropolitan Council staff, as part of the Thrive 2040 work to show where people of color live across the metro area. All maps use census tract data for 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010. All use the same scale, shown here – the darker the color, the greater the percent of the population that is non-White. Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 10 Page through these quickly to show the change in concentration (increasingly higher % of population). You are going to see a series of heat maps for all seven counties in the metro area – and of course, if you’re looking in the lower right corner, you’ll see Dakota County’s change most effectively. Census tracts are groupings of census blocks, which are the smallest or neighborhood level geographic area used for data collection during the decennial censuses. Census tracts usually contain about 4,000 people and contract or expand with population density. People of color include Hispanics, which were not separated from Whites until the 1990 census, but the METC staff used PUMS data to do these maps We have Randy Knippel in Dakota County’s GIS Office to thank for getting us these maps so we didn’t have to re-create them. 10 1980 11 11 1990 12 12 2000 13 13 2010 14 14 Diversity in Schools Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 15 Another way we look at racial/ethnic diversity is through the lens of our school districts. School children in Dakota County are more diverse than the overall population data might suggest, because families with parents who are of child-bearing ages are more diverse than are older families or seniors. In the County as a whole, students who are nonwhite or Hispanic/Latino of any race have more than doubled this decade, from 11% of the student body in 2001 to 31% of the student body during the current school year. (statewide is about the same – 28.5% - and the metro area is higher at 39% in the 2014-2015 school year). The Hastings school district, which includes townships surrounding the City where the population is even more White than in the city, has one of lowest percent of students from diverse communities. However, this percentage is still higher than the matching percent of people of color of all ages in the city of Hastings (slide 8). This is not complete data – this data is collected by the state Education Dept for public and charter schools; does not include private schools, which currently are about 6% of the total number of school students in DC. 15 Languages Spoken in Schools (2014-2015) Students in DC schools speak 116 different languages Note: The left vertical axis = % students who speak a language other than English at home. The right vertical axis (blue line) = raw # languages spoken at home by students within the county for 2014-2015 Source: MN Dept Education Hastings (ISD 200) = 28 languages Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 16 Not to beat the diversity to death, but this is pretty remarkable. This data is for two school years ago, not the current one. Didn’t have time to update it. In this chart, the bars show percentages of students who speak a language other than English at home by County, with about 15% in Dakota County. The curvy line above the bars is the raw number of languages other than English that are spoken at home by kids in that County. Students in school districts in Dakota County report speaking 116 languages at home – 117, if you count English. But I did look up the most recent data available for the Hastings School District, which is from the last school year, students speak 28 different languages other than English. Only 3% of students account for those 28 languages. Waray, Kru, Hausa and Philipino are the four with the highest number of speakers. Waray is a dialect from the Phillipines. Kru is spoken in the South African countries of Liberia and Ivory Coast. Hausa is another language from South Africa, from the country of Chad. The US Census Bureau earlier this week announced a year ago that their data analysis showed 350 languages spoken in households across the US. Question: What’s the most common non-English language spoken in Dakota County? A: Spanish, followed by Somali, Vietnamese, Russian and Hmong. 16 Dakota County Population Shift Coming Numbers of seniors increasing, children decreasing Sources: U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 17 Kids vs Seniors – This is one way the state demographer, Susan Brower, shows us the effects of the age wave in our County. Since Dakota County’s cities started growing into booming suburbs in the 1950s, children have outnumbered seniors. As the baby-boomer generation ages into retirement, the trend is flipping; within a few years, seniors will outnumber children, according to state Demographer’s Office projections shown here. As recently as 2000 (16 years ago), there were three times as many children as seniors in the County’s population. But – state demographer says by 2035, 20 years from now, more than 1 out of 4 residents of DC will be seniors (age 65+) compared with 1 in 9 in 2010. We looked at the aged 60 – 64 age group recently; for at least the next five years, there will be more than 4,000 people each year aging into retirement age (age 65) in the county. You can see that in less than a decade from now, seniors will outnumber children for the first time in the County’s history. This trend could sharpen even more – mortality rates are more affected by smoking and obesity than other factors, and both of those causes are decreasing as the population as a whole adopts more healthy lifestyles. So even more seniors could be living even longer. Susan Brower prediction: Over the next 15 years, more Minnesotans will retire than in the past six decades combined, resulting in a labor shortage that is unprecedented since the end of World War II. By 2020, the state is forecast to have a shortage of more than 100,000 workers. This data: 2000, 2010 are actual numbers from the Censuses in those years. The rest of the years are projections from the state demographer’s office. 17 Household Composition changing only slightly in Hastings Source: 2000 Census data and 2010-2014 American Community Survey 2010-2014 Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 18 Isn’t it refreshing to see a pie chart once in a while?? This is data for the city of Hastings. I originally had the idea to use the pie charts to show changes in what household composition looks like – because across the county, there is a distinct difference over the 15-year time period in the shift of more people living alone and fewer married couples with children. You can see that change in the data for Hastings, but it isn’t as dramatic as it is elsewhere. For example, the % of households where people are living alone – shown in purple -- has increased from about 23% to about 26%. And the % of households that are married with kids – shown in red -- went from almost 29% to about 20%. 18 Highlights Demographics Economics Housing And a few more Quick Quiz: What is the poverty rate? What is the unemployment rate? How many homeowners are considered “cost-burdened”? Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 19 19 OK, enough about demographics. Let’s talk for a few minutes about what our economic picture looks like. When we talk about economics and labor force, it’s important to note that the DATA we have generally lags behind what you’re hearing in the NEWS. So, we’ll show you what we know so far on economic indicators and also some leading indicators that might project future changes. Photo: not sure where this is from, Mary J thinks little lake in Whitetail Woods (newest) park. Dakota County Socio-Economic Trends Unemployment is much improved, but the poverty rate has increased; public assistance cases are also increasing faster than population growth. A disproportionate number of children and people from communities of color live in poverty. The housing market has returned to pre-recession status, with foreclosures below historic normal levels, but the tight rental market is causing high rent costs. Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 20 Big picture: In all of these economic measures, Dakota County does better than MN and the US. When compared to the rest of the metro area counties, often right in the middle. 20 21 2015 US median household income: $56,000. A circle around state name means the value is statistically the same as the US median. This map adds very little to this presentation, except that it landed in my email box a week ago. This is what the census bureau calls an “infographic” and is a heat map – that is, it shows by color gradient the median household income at the state level. MN is above the national median, and Dakota County is above the Minnesota statewide median. Nationally, in 2015 the median HH income was just under $56,000 ($55,557), a 5% increase over 2014. Economists were pretty excited about that, because it’s a big jump for one year, was the third year in a row the HH income increased by a statistically significant margin – meaning it’s higher than the MOE, and a solid indication that the economy is back on track. Mississippi had the lowest median HH income in 2015, at $40,600. Maryland had the highest state med HH income at $75,800 and ---- (next slide) 21 Median Household Income Adjusted for inflation, median incomes fallen since 2000 All income data has been adjusted for inflation to 2016 Sources: Census Bureau, American Community Survey Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 22 . .. . (con’t from previous slide) That means the median HH income for DC in the five previous years is higher than the highest in the Country for 2015 (Maryland, at $75,800, as shown on the last slide). Median household income is one of the standard economic measures experts use to judge economic health. Median means half the households made more and half made less. The data here has all been adjusted to 2016 dollars, using the inflation calculator from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. During the worst economic recession in a generation, you’d expect to take a hit on median household income. The data for 2005-2009 is right before most of the effects of the recession were showing up in economic data. The data for 2010-2014 reflects the economic recession and two or three years of recovery. So the state, the County and in Hastings, we haven’t made any gains in income since the 1990s, even though we have added back the number of jobs lost during the recession, and our unemployment rate is very good. 22 Unemployment Rate 2007-2015 Dakota County’s unemployment rate has recovered Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (LAUS) Hastings: 5% unemployed = 865 people (ACS 2010-2015 data) Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 23 23 The unemployment rate is based on a national survey and describes how many people are seeking a job, but are unable to find one – although it doesn’t count people who have given up looking for a job. So the numbers on this chart do not tell us the entire story about the unemployed – and it’s common in bad economic times, for the unemployment rate to actually increase slightly at the end of the slump as those who gave up begin to search for jobs again. Dakota County’s unemployment rate is shown as the green line on this chart, and is generally below both the state and national rates, but follows the same general trend. The unemployment rate increased sharply in 2008 through mid-2010. In fact, in early 2009, our unemployment rate in Dakota County was higher than it has ever been since we have been tracking it (20+ years), at 8%. This data is monthly and goes through May of 2016. This is the lowest the unemployment rate has been in our county since 2001. And, the number of jobs has now returned to the same level as before the recession started. This data comes from DEED, but is actually from a national survey conducted by a partner of the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For more a couple of years, the survey has been collecting information about the stubborn part of the unemployment stats – those who are discouraged and have given up looking for work – about a quarter of those who are unemployed have been for more than 6 months – and those who are underemployed, meaning they’re working part time but want to work fulltime. Unfortunately, the BLS and DEED won’t report any unemployment data for county-sized geographic areas, except for the overall numbers because there aren’t enough surveys to make the data reliable when you look at sub-groups like discouraged workers, under employed workers, or unemployment among people of color. Post-recession poverty still high in metro area All suburban poverty rates higher than in 2000 15.5% - 2014 poverty rate for US 11.6% - 2014 poverty rate for MN Source: American Community Survey Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 24 Despite the low unemployment rate, we still have plenty of people who are living in poverty in our county. This chart shows overall poverty levels for all seven metro counties for the years 2010 – when we started seeing the economic effects of the recession – and 2012 and 2014. This data is for people, not households. Data for Dakota Cty is shown in the pair of bars third from the left under the arrow. This is actually data from 2014 that I didn’t update – but the poverty rate for people in the County has improved only very slightly in 2015 to 7.3%. The most important points that I see in this slide: - First, poverty rates in our county and the metro counties that are the most like us – Washington and Anoka – are almost the same as in 2010. But all of those rates are higher than in 2000 (data not on chart). - Second, though the recession – according to economists – was at its peak in 2008, ending mid-way through 2009, the poverty rate is a lagging economic indicator. Hennepin and Ramsey counties had very high poverty rates in 2010, which was well after the economists pronounced the recession to be done. (14% Henn 17% Ramsey). - Third, the poverty rate is still a little higher now for all counties than in 2008, when the economy was perking right along before the economy tanked -- our poverty rate was about 4.0% - suggesting it will be hard to get it much lower than that. - Last, even though our poverty rate was about 7.4% in 2014, that’s still lower than in the urban metro counties, and less than half the poverty rate for the US, and lower than the state’s poverty rate for the same time period. But that’s still close to 30,000 people living in poverty in the county – almost the same as the entire population of Inver Grove Heights. Recall that the poverty rate is an annual income level set by the federal government. In 2015, a family of four was considered to be living in poverty if the household income was slightly over $24,000. Many families in poverty have at most one (generally not two) working adults (mom and 2 – 3 kids is typical). If you are paid a little above minimum wage – let’s say $8.50/hour and you work fulltime year round, you will make less than $18,000. 24 Household Poverty in Dakota County 2006-2015 Even after recovery, poverty rate is higher than before recession City-level data for households (vs people) in poverty is no longer available from ACS/Census Bureau Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 25 This is a little different take on the poverty rate. It’s looking at households, not people – and interestingly, when the 3-year dataset went away two years ago, the CB also tweaked some of its data analysis methodology – and result is that for small communities, the poverty by household measure is no longer available. The poverty rate is better for households than for individual people, because for this measure, households are counted a little differently than people. This measures the combined income for all the people in a household and then compares it to the federal poverty rate, which as I said is currently a bit above $24,000 for a family of four. Because we know that a higher % of children are in poverty as an age group, the poverty rate for individuals is higher than the poverty rate for households. The census bureau no longer calculates poverty by households in the five-year dataset, so I can’t show you the data for Hastings. But the poverty rate if counting people instead of households is similar to that of the County as a whole: 7.5% when measured in the 2010 – 2015 data. That includes data during the effects of the recession plus two years of economic recovery. 25 Poverty rates in Dakota County cities Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014 dataset Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 26 WSP, SSP, Burnsville have highest poverty rates This chart shows the poverty rates for individuals living in the cities in Dakota County with the biggest populations. We used the ACS 5-year data set, meaning it is data from surveys returned to the Census Bureau during 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. The new five-year dataset, from 2011-2015, won’t be released for a few more weeks. To me, the interesting thing here is not so much the exact percentage, but rather how it varies from city to city. I got tired of the vertical bars, so I made them horizontal for this one. As we’ve already noted, the overall poverty rate for people in our county is much lower than it is for the state or the nation. However, one of the most disturbing points about our poverty data is that a higher proportion of kids live in poverty than any other age group. In Hastings, the overall poverty rate for people of all ages is 7.5% in this dataset, and the poverty rate for kids (under age 18) is 8.6%. For seniors, it’s 5.2%. We also know that immigrants, persons of color and families with children are disproportionately poor in Dakota County, which is also true in the metropolitan region generally. 26 Poverty: Public Assistance Cases Dakota County public assistance caseloads doubled in a decade * medical assistance category includes new MA cases through MnSure since 2014 Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 27 Another economic indicator that we can measure that goes along with our unemployment rate and the poverty rate is what’s happening with public assistance cases. When the poverty rate increases, it stands to reason that our county caseloads for public assistance also increase. This chart shows we have experienced a steady increase in the active public assistance cases in Dakota County, even when adjusted for population growth. In the last 10 years, our total public assistance caseloads per capita increased from a monthly average of 52 to 117. This means we’re controlling for population growth, and the caseloads have more than doubled on a per-person basis. And that was true even without the 11,000 new Medical Assistance cases since the last quarter of 2014 that resulted from law changes that make more low-income families eligible. This chart shows public assistance caseloads broken out by type of assistance. You can see the food support (the orange line) has been increasing while the cash programs stayed relatively constant but the medical cases (blue line) have increased as a % of the total caseload. Food support and cash assistance cases have actually seen a slight decrease in the last two years, as the economy has improved. Public assistance cases are in the MFIP, General Assistance, Medical Assistance and what we used to call Food Stamp programs. Among the different types of public assistance, medical assistance accounts for the largest share.   27 Students Eligible for Free/Reduced Lunches More than 1/4 of students in the County now qualify Source: MN Department of Education Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 28 A proxy – or another indicator – that gives us a clue about poverty levels is what’s happening in schools – in this case, the number of kids in schools who are eligible for free or reduced price lunches and breakfasts. In contrast to some of the other charts, the data shown here refers NOT to the general population of the geographic area in the school districts, but rather to school-aged children who attend school in these districts. The data on the chart is for kids who go to public and charter schools, a total of about 80,000 in the most recent school year for the County, and about 4,500 for the Hastings School District. Doesn’t include data for the kids in private schools. Kids are eligible based on their household income, which is tied to the federal poverty rate. You can see that in the last decade, the trend line for the school districts within Dakota County parallels the state as a whole, but the County does better, and Hastings is in better shape than the County. The most recent data shown here is from the last school year, and more than one-quarter of all students in public schools qualified for meal assistance at school at the county level, though there was a slight drop this year compared to the all-time high of last year. For Hastings, it’s a more than 1 in every 5 students who qualify – last year, that was 942 students. 28 Dakota County: Housing Cost Burden Housing costs exceed 30% of income for almost half of renters Hastings owners w/mortgage – 22.1% Hastings renters – 51.0% are cost-burdened (ACS 2010-2014 dataset) Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 29 Source: American Community Survey 1-year dataset Housing affordability improved slightly during and right after the recession, because median sales prices were lower. This graph shows the housing cost burden data for the last decade for the county as a whole. Households that are cost-burdened pay 30% or more of their gross monthly income for housing. This is a measure of prosperity that we keep an eye on because the concern is that families that pay too much for housing are less able to pay for necessities like food, clothing, transportation and health care. In 2015, almost half of renters paid 30% or more of their income for housing – the green line. We think of Dakota County as full of prosperous people, but you can see that 1/5 of homeowners are considered cost-burdened, (the blue line) and that is an improvement over the 1/3 of homeowners during the worst of the recession. These percentages do not add up to 100 because I’m not showing you the % of homeowners who have paid off their mortgage. The graph shows that during the years of the recession and since, as foreclosures increased, more people who were renting were cost-burdened. This is partly related to the law of supply and demand in the housing market – we have limited numbers of rental units available and some people who lost their homes turned to rentals instead, driving up the monthly rent and contributing to the % of people who are paying too much for housing. The DC Community Development Agency says DC has +23,400 market rate rental units and a vacancy rate of just under 2% in 2015 – an ideal vacancy rate to reflect natural turnover is around 5%. The CDA estimates that to afford rent on a 3-bedroom apartment here, which is more than $1,400 per month, a household annual income of about $52,000 is needed to avoid being considered cost-burdened. In the Metro Area in 2014, according to the ACS, only Anoka County had lower rates of cost-burdened households compared to Dakota County. This is a little surprising – historically, DC generally is right in the middle of our peer counties in the metro area (leaving out RC, HC). Remember - Many families in poverty have at most one (generally not two) working adults (mom and 2 – 3 kids is typical). If you are paid a little above minimum wage – let’s say $8.50/hour and you work fulltime year round, you will make less than $18,000. 29 Highlights Demographics Economics Housing And a few more Quick quiz: What is your sense of the housing market? Back to normal? Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 30 And speaking of cost burdens, let’s look at just two pieces of data for housing. Photo from CDA; location unknown by OPA. Data collected by the Twin Cities Realtors Association – whose members work all over the metro and they have a respectable data-gathering system – shows that the median sale price for homes sold in DC in the last few months is now back to the level it was before the recession. There are lots of stories of people putting their home on the market and within 24 hours, have multiple offers above the asking price. Though an industry source, Zillow, estimates we still have 10% or more homes under water in the County. Also, the foreclosure rate is now well below what it was more than 10 years ago, which was well before foreclosure became a household word – a few years ago, Hastings was one of the cities that was hit hardest by foreclosures (in per capita measure). 30 Homeownership Dakota County slipping in % homeowners Source of chart data: American Community Survey 1-year dataset Homeownership in Hastings is 74.8% (2010-2014) Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 31 Even throughout the recent period of high foreclosures, Dakota County traditionally has had a high rate of home ownership compared to the state and nation, though the estimated rate of homeownership in 2013 was lower than any of the last six years. All of the homeownership percentages shown on this table are above the statewide rate, but the gap has narrowed in recent years. However, while our homeownership rate is higher than the state and the nation as a whole (64% - national rate), we had been slipping since the recession started, but we’re having trouble getting back to the pre-recession rate. We are a little lower than Anoka and Washington Counties, which we often use as benchmark counties. This chart shows the percent of residences for people who own their own home, (or have a mortgage), as opposed to renting it. High homeownership rates can correlate to greater median household income or economic prosperity – and usually means stable communities. Some of the change in our county over the last five years might be more rental property being added, esp for seniors. This is good news for Hastings – the homeownership rate is healthier than in the County, or the state, or the nation. In 2013, the homeownership rate for the state as a whole was 72%. 31 Apartment Vacancy Rate in Dakota County The low vacancy rate causes higher rent costs Hastings 2015 vacancy rate = under 1% avg among 714 rental units Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 32 We talked a little about this data in the slide about cost-burdened renters. The CDA staff report to the Board of Commissioners every year a number of statistics that they compile. One of those is a picture of the current rental market. In Dakota County, for several years now, we’ve had a very tight rental market in terms of the vacancy rate. And the cost of apartment rent is very sensitive to the laws of supply and demand – so when the vacancy or turnover rate is low, and it’s hard to find an apartment to rent, the costs go up. But the Census Bureau released data a couple of years ago from one of its economic surveys that showed the national vacancy rate (average across states) is 7.0% -- way higher than it is here. The CDA conducts a rental market survey every spring. In 2015, they surveyed managers of the 23,000+ market rate rental units across the County, with an 85% response rate. The cost for a 2-BR unit in the county in 2015 was $1,100 per month on average – which was more than a 10% increase in just ONE YEAR!! For Hastings – the report found in 2015, the rent for a 1-BR apt was $710, up from $640 in 2011, which is an 11% increase in four years. That’s pretty high, but not as bad as the CDA survey found in other cities in the County. The CDA’s report speculates that the recovering economy brings in more people eager to find jobs (we have low unemployment) which puts pressure on the market, and baby boomers who are retiring and downsizing may also be part of the stress in the rental market. This is happening while the most recent housing needs assessment in 2013 predicted the need for an additional 7,400 apartment units in DC between 2010 and 2020. We’re now mid-way through that time period and to date, less than 1,500 units have been added. 32 Highlights Demographics Economics Housing And a few more Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 33 We’re in the home stretch now!! 33 Dakota County Cities: Educational Attainment Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 34 This is a look at the differences in educational attainment by city. Because most of these cities have fewer than 65,000 population, we can get only the five-year data for them – this is the most recent five-year dataset, from 2010-2014. Hastings has the largest % of residents over the age of 25 who earned a high school diploma and did not go beyond that. And the City of Mendota Heights is the star for the largest % of residents with a bachelor’s degree or higher. The numbers for each row do not add up to 100% because I left out two of the five categories: those w/some college but no degree, and associate degrees. A couple of years ago, I attended the annual meeting for Minnesota Compass. Among the data tidbits I picked up is that DEED and a study from the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce predicts that by 2018 – 70% of jobs in Minnesota will require a college education, which is 7% above the national average. Perhaps this is a chicken-or-egg question, but maybe one of the reasons why our population is so well-educated is because we have more than the average number of jobs that demand that level of education. I learned something about STEM careers too (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) – In 2012, there were 225,000 jobs in STEM fields in Minnesota, which is 17% of all jobs. Over the next 10 years, about another 80,000 STEM jobs will be added to Minnesota’s workforce. There were 2.5 STEM jobs for every worker in 2012; for non-STEM jobs, there were 2.7 people for every job. 34 2013: Internet Access at Home (incl smartphones) Even households without much income prioritize internet access Source: American Community Survey Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 35 I didn’t update this yet for 2015, and the data isn’t available at the city level yet b/c only collecting since 2013. This is a new measure that we can now get from the American Community Survey, which added a question in 2013 about internet access and types of devices used with that access. According to the CB definition, broadband access includes the service plan we use for internet access using mobile devices like smartphones or tablets, as well as “fixed” broadband that gives us internet access to our computers at home (not work). The CB included this new question on the ACS because of the signs that having access to a device that uses the Internet and to internet access itself has become very important for people, both because of quality of life and because it’s harder and harder to get ordinary consumer tasks done without it. Critical daily tasks such as homework, banking, scheduling appointments, communicating with friends and family, and many others depend on internet access and unless you camp out at a coffee shop or a DC library – where there is free wi-fi, that means you are paying for an internet subscription of some kind. You probably know intuitively that smart phones, because they are a convenient and very portable hand-held computer with amazing functionality, are becoming a substitute for a desktop or laptop computer. This chart shows that almost everyone in the County who can afford it has an internet subscription, and even for those with incomes UNDER $20,000 -- almost half of them have an internet subscription. The data show that income is closely correlated with additional devices, less so with internet access itself. Many HH in DC pay for both “fixed wireless” – meaning computers at home – and mobile broadband, meaning a service plan for a smart phone or tablet. Many HH in DC have all three. In 2013, only 4% had no computer or mobile device at home, and 8% of HH in DC had no internet subscription at all (for any device). Pew Research has been tracking cellphone use and internet access since 2011. Their most recent survey data from late 2015 show more than 90% of of American adults own cellphones, with 70% of adults owning specifically smart phones. Compared to a decade ago, fewer people own MP3 players or e-readers – because they can do those things on a smart phone now, and ownership of a desktop or laptop (notebook) computer has dropped lately – in 2015, Pew found that less than ¾ of adults owned a computer, about the same as in 2004. At the same time, tablet computer ownership has increased 10%, to 45% for all adults. In the 2015 survey, Pew Research found that 70% of all adults in the US own a smartphone, and more than half of those with annual incomes under $30,000 own a smartphone. The % of ownership by race or ethnicity doesn’t change much – it’s 66% for Whites, 68% for Blacks and 64% for Hispanics. Those differences are statistically insignificant, within the MOE> 35 Recap: Good News! Unemployment rate is very low The rate of those with health insurance is going up Freeways are getting more crowded Home ownership rates are high, and both property values and sales prices are increasing as foreclosures become rare again We’re better educated than most Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 36 36 Resources American Community Survey: http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml Minnesota Compass: http://www.mncompass.org/ Dakota County’s Community Indicators data is available online: http://www.co.dakota.mn.us/Government/Analysis/ Demographics/Pages/default.aspx For questions about data in this presentation, please call or email Jane Vanderpoel, Management Analyst at Dakota County: jane.vanderpoel@co.dakota.mn.us 651-438-4423 Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 37 We don’t post copies of this PowerPoint file on Dakota County’s website, though some of the charts/graphs can be found in the Community Indicators section of the Dakota County website, shown on this slide. If you want copies of this presentation, please contact Jane. This has been a long presentation, but I would like to make one final point ---- We rely on the American Community Survey, as you can see, for a great deal of demographic and socio-economic data. Two years ago, Congress approved cuts to the Census Bureau budget that resulted in the CB having to cut out the 3-year data – it is no longer available. This means no change if all we look at is countywide data. But to get data for our cities, or any geographic entity under 65,000 population, now we have to rely on the five-year dataset. That makes it much harder to see what’s happening at the city level and much harder to look at trends because of the large number of years of survey data that are being mushed together to create the five-year data. You can imagine that during the recession, some of the economic data changed a great deal throughout the course of a five-year period, and you wouldn’t be able to see that with five-year data. 37 Hastings Diversity, Inclusion and Access Group Conversation Starter Questions? Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 38 38 39 39 40 40 41 1950-2010: Population Growth County growth slowed through decades Credit: Craig Helmstetter, MN Compass/Wilder Research Show by % and add Hastings to compare? Not Hoang’s line chart This chart shows the percentage of population growth since 1950 for Dakota County (teal), the twin cities 7-county region (green) and the state of Minnesota as whole in maroon. This demonstrates how much the RATE of growth has slowed in the last two decades (and is continuing in the current decade). In 1960, Dakota County’s population was well under 100,000 so it didn’t take much to grow very rapidly in terms of percentage growth. With a population approaching a half million people these days, of course it takes much more growth – many more people -- to move the percentage up quickly. Our population growth rate is still a little greater than the twin cities region or the state as a whole, but is much slower than it has been during the last 60 years. 41 Immigrants are Important to Growth 42 Components of Dakota County’s population change (2010 to 2014): 14,000 added since 2010 (398,552 to 412,529) Most of that change -- 12,500 of those people -- came from natural growth: 22,000 births 9,500 deaths Another 1,200 resulted from In-Out Migration: - 2,000 domestic-born people moved out of the County (net) + 3,200 foreign-born people moved into the County Currently 9% of the population, but account for ¼ growth since 2010 Result: 23% of the growth from 2010 to 2014 was from foreign-born people In comparison, between 2000 and 2009, 15% of the population growth was from people who are foreign-born Source: U.S. Census Bureau You already know our population is growing steadily but slowly – less than 1% annually for several years now. Our County Manager asked us a few months ago whether our population would have grown at all if not for immigration. The answer is yes – but immigrants certainly are helping our population growth. They represent only about 9% of our current population overall, but almost a quarter (23%) of the growth since 2010. By contrast, in the decade 2000 through 2009, 15% of the population growth in Dakota County was from foreign-born immigrants. The state demographer, Susan Brower, issued a new report in January (Minnesota on the Move) that concluded by 2040, the number of deaths in the state will outnumber births, and for any population growth, we’ll have to attract people from elsewhere, including immigrants: - in the next 15-20 years, so many people in big baby boom generation will leave the labor force that growth in the labor force will stop. immigrants (foreign born) will be an ever-growing source of workers to help fill the gap. - 2/3 of MN’s total annual loss is students leaving the state for college and not returning; we gain 21,000 college students annually on average but lose 29,000. More than half of those who leave MN for college go to a neighboring state. She said every year since 2001 the state has lost more workers than it has gained (btwn 7-12,000/yr). This is known as migration – meaning people moving in and out, not necessarily IMMIGRANTS. More than 100,000 people have come into the state every year lately, but we’re losing an even greater number to other states. The state loses people when they leave to go to college and when they retire. Between the ages of 25 and 60, our population is more stable (we don’t lose many in those age groups). The notion of a great reliance on today’s youth of color, especially immigrants, to become tomorrow’s work force is also the subject of a recent paper by William Frey, a demographer and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. 42 Dakota County Population Components Immigrants gain only slightly since 2005 43 Dakota County: US-born and Foreign-born population components Source: American Community Survey The American Community Survey gives us a picture of the “nativity” of people who live in the County. The Census Bureau calls people who are born within the US “native born”. If you were born outside of the US, you are foreign-born. Foreign-born can mean Caucasian immigrants, such as those from Britain or Canada or northern Europe – not necessarily only those from southeast asia or african nations. The blue bars in the chart are the percent of people in the County who were born in Minnesota. The yellow part of the bar represents the people in the population who were born in the US but not MN, and the green section of the bar is people who are foreign born – immigrants. The perception is that we have an increasing number of immigrants in Dakota County – and while that might be true, it must also be true that they don’t all stay here once they get here. You can see that the range of percentages in all three categories are very stable – only a difference of less than two percent (64.2% to 66.1%) for those born in Minnesota, and a range of only slightly more for those who are US natives but not born in Minnesota (25.2% – 28.0%). But the range of foreign born in our population is only 7.3% to 8.6% since 2005 – and when we factor in the margin of error, this difference is a wash. 43 Context: Growth of Diverse Populations 44 Source: Minnesota Compass Let’s talk about diversity. Growth in non-white populations is a big part of our population growth in the last two decades. Until almost 1980, the Twin Cities region was very white. This chart is from the Minnesota Compass and shows the growth of non-white populations in Metro area counties since 1960. Dakota County is the brown line in the middle. You can see Ramsey County (the teal line on top) and Hennepin County (the purple line below that) have much higher percentages of diverse populations in their overall populations – but among the suburban counties, Dakota County has a higher percentage than Scott, Washington, Anoka or Carver counties. 44 Dakota County Median Household Income Blacks, Hispanics have much lower household incomes 45 Source: American Community Survey Especially for economic measures, we thought it was important to see whether people of color fare as well as the White, Non-Hispanic segment of the population, or whether there is an economic gap – as shown at a national or regional level by many organizations such as the Pew Research Center, the Brookings Institution, and the Minnesota Compass group at the Wilder Foundation. This is the first of our gap slides. The previous chart showed the median household income for three different years for the metropolitan-area counties. This chart looks more deeply at the differences in median household income between Whites and people of color. Because the margin of error is so large, we used 3-year data sets instead of single years but even so, the margin of error for the diverse groups has quite high ranges – sometimes upwards of a swing of 20% (10% below or above the value shown). The MOE for “all households” and Whites categories are both at +/- 2%. As in many of our economic measures, people of color who are Asians are doing as well or better than Whites, but we cannot say the same for Hispanics and Blacks. This data really shows how economic consequences lags behind economic events. Economists believe the great recession started at the beginning of 2008 and lasted about 18 months, through mid-2009 – and then it was over. But you can see that all of the race groups (except for Whites) did better in the 2008-2010 time frame compared to the more recent years of 2011 -2013. (the pink bar is longer than the purple bar). Disclaimer: the dollar amounts shown for the three-year datasets are adjusted for inflation within the three year figure shown by the census bureau. But OPA has not attempted to adjust for inflation BETWEEN the two separate three-year figures shown. 45 Dakota County Unemployment Rate Even a robust economy doesn’t close the gap 46 Source: American Community Survey The unemployment rate data in the previous slide is generated from a survey conducted by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics and reported by state DEED monthly. Because the number of completed surveys at the county level is so small, they report the overall unemployment rate but not any breakdowns by race. ---------- This is another of our “gap” slides. Separately, the American Community Survey asks about employment status. This is the rate of unemployment for all people age 16 to 64 – so it doesn’t count people of retirement age who are working or want to work. The gap between people of color and whites during 2013 was 3%, which is equal to the smallest gap since before 2005. The previous 3% difference was in 2009, just before the economic affects of the recession were being felt in our County. So even a healthy economy does not erase the gap. We know from statewide unemployment data in early 2015 that Blacks/AA were more than 11% unemployed, or almost three times the unempl rate for the population as a whole, and Hispanics were more than 5% unemployed, or almost double the unempl rate for the population as a whole. (DEED – alternative measures of unemployment table) 46 Dakota County Poverty Rate Since 2005, the poverty rate is consistently higher for People of Color 47 Source: American Community Survey Here is another gap slide. As we have seen in previous slides showing the diversity gap, there is a distinct difference in the percent of people who live in poverty if they’re White and the percent who live in poverty if they aren’t White. I haven’t updated this slide with 2014 data yet. In the last nine years, the smallest gap has been more than 5 percentage points, in 2008 (3.2% vs 8.7%). That was the last year of a healthy economy before the recession hit. By 2013, the gap widened to 17 percentage points – clearly indicating that the recession was much harder on people of color generally, and their economic picture has worsened since 2008. In contrast, the poverty rate for people who are White is lower, and was much more stable during the recession. What these two groups have in common is that four years after economists declared the recession was officially ended, both segments of the population continued to have higher poverty rates than before the recession started – as we saw in the previous slide. Recall that the poverty rate is an annual income level set by the federal government. In 2014, a family of four was considered to be living in poverty if the household income was slightly under $24,000. In early April, WalMart announced it would increase the minimum wage for its workers to $9/hour. For one person working fulltime, that generates an income of less than $19,000 a year ($18,720). 47 Dakota County Health Insurance At least twice as many People of Color lack health insurance 48 Source: American Community Survey This is another of our gap slides. As we’ve seen in many of the other “gap” charts, the Whites are more likely to have health insurance and their rate of being insured is more stable. People who are members of communities of color have at least double the rate of uninsurance compared to Whites, and in many cases, it has been higher than that since 2009. Because we know that many people get their health insurance through their employer, the effect of people losing jobs altogether or losing fulltime status can be seen in the spike in 2011. MNSure enrollments didn’t start until after the 2013 ACS data was collected, so the data does not reflect changes due to the federal ACA. 48 Poverty Rates for Cities in Dakota County South St. Paul, Burnsville highest child poverty rates 49 Source: American Community Survey 2011-2013 dataset We thought it might be useful to understand the degree to which our cities are affected by poverty. This data is from the American Community Survey and because of the size of the populations involved, we used three-year datasets for our largest cities. This is the last year for which 3-year data was available; there is no such thing as 2012 – 2014 data because the CB has had budget cuts and aren’t doing that analysis anymore. For the smaller cities and townships, we have to go to 5-year data sets. The first thing to note is that our scale goes only to 40%, not 100%, and we did that so you can more easily see differences between the cities and between the age groups. The dark red bars represent the poverty rate for all people of all ages in the cities, with Dakota County and the state of MN on the right side of the chart for comparison. The yellow bars are children and purple bars are seniors (defined as age 65 and older). The data label above each set of bars represents the % of children in poverty in that city, not the overall poverty rate. In every city except Farmington, children (defined as under age 18) have a higher poverty rate than the rest of the population. Burnsville and South St. Paul have the highest rate of child poverty and the highest rates of overall poverty, with Farmington and Rosemount having the lowest overall poverty rates. WSP population is slightly too small for the 3-year data. But the 5-year data (2009-2013) shows poverty rates for these three population groups at about 2% points below SSP (so 16% for kids, 7% for seniors, and 12% overall). Mendota Heights is way too small for 3-year data, but the five-year data set shows results similar to Rosemount’s (4% for kids, 3% for seniors, 3.5% overall). 49 Health Insurance Coverage DC trend decreasing for those without health insurance 50 Source: American Community Survey In 2008, the ACS started asking whether people had access to health insurance coverage (either public or private) at the time that the survey was filled out. Results of this question since 2008, for Dakota County, show a slight decrease over time in the % of people who do not have health insurance. The 2008 data reflects the healthy economy before the recession, in 2011 we were still very much in the throes of the recession, and in 2014 the economy was better but more importantly, the Affordable Care Act had been in place for two years. The reason this measure is so affected by the economy is that most working-age adults get their health insurance through an employer, so people who are unemployed are more likely to be uninsured. You can see that in most counties, there were more people without health insurance in 2011 compared to 2008. But by last year, after ACA was in place – in Minnesota, this is MNSure -- the percent of people who don’t have health insurance dropped considerably. The 2013 American Community Survey reports about 82% of those with health insurance have private insurance in Dakota County, and about 22% are insured by a public source such as Medicare or Medicaid. (Note: the percentages do not equal 100 because people can be insured by both.) 50 Annual Cost of Living, Family of Four, 2015 The necessities cost more than $70,000 in Dakota County 51 Source: MN Dept. of Employment and Economic Development Thinking about incomes and the cost of housing, we got a little excited when we learned last month that the state Dept of employment and economic development has a new calculator on their website. It allows a user to plug in variables – such as geographic area family characteristics, and then draws data from a number of sources to calculate how much it costs for a year to live there. Unfortunately, this calculator does not show city-level cost of living estimates, so the best I can do is look at it coutnywide. The system pulls from databases that collect information about property values and taxes, costs for health care and child care, food costs, income taxes, and estimated costs for transportation. The assumptions for this chart were that the family consists of 2 adults, one working part time, and 2 kids, one in part time child care. DEED calls this a basic-needs cost estimate, not a summary of consumer expenditures. These estimates do not include costs for entertainment, eating out, recreation, health club memberships, alcohol/tobacco, savings, vacations, college tuition, or retirement deferrals. DEED describes this calculation as “neither a poverty-level living nor a middle-class living, but rather a simple living that meets basic needs for health and safety.” You can see that for all seven of the metro counties – shown in blue -- the costs are fairly uniform, varying only by about $5,000 from highest to lowest – I found that somewhat surprising. The bottom line is that for a family of four, the DEED calculator estimates it takes a household income of more than $70,000 to be able to live in Dakota County. I should probably mention that in DC, the average household size is actually slightly under 3, so a four-person family is a bit bigger than our average. 51 Dakota County Homeownership Rate The gap persists even in a healthy economy 52 This is another of our economic gap slides. Homeownership represents more than a location for shelter. It is also something to aspire to, a mark of status within a community and an indicator of financial security for families. People who are White are more likely to own homes than people of color (including Hispanics). The difference in homeownership between white and non-white households is known as the homeownership gap. There are many reasons why a homeownership gap (by race) could occur, including income disparities, access to credit, perhaps historic racism in lending practices, and others. The chart shows in the last nine years, there is more stability in the homeownership rate for whites compared to non-Whites. In 2008, when the gap was the smallest, the effects of the recession were just starting to be visible in economic measures in Dakota County, and many families were benefitting from the booming economy (just before the recession). As of 2013, the gap was a 34% difference. In the same time period, when we compare DC’s gap with that of state of MN as a whole, we have consistently had less of a gap but since 2009 we have been closing the gap – in 2013, the difference between the two was only a single percentage point. 52 Home Foreclosures 53 Sources: Dakota County Community Development Agency and Dakota County Sheriffs Office County foreclosures below pre-recession levels Hastings Diversity, Inclusion & Access Group 53 The foreclosures in our county from 2001 – 2005 increased slightly each year, as the number of residential properties did, but with about 100,000 properties, these were only a tiny percentage, less than one-tenth of 1% of residential properties within the County. About a half percent of total residential properties could be considered a “normal” foreclosure rate, or something in the 500-600 range for 2015. We have data for the first 6 months of 2015 and project a final number of foreclosures for 2015 at less than 550, which is back to a normal % of foreclosures The numbers of foreclosures started to dramatically increase in late 2006 and into 2008, well before the economic recession was at its peak. Housing experts believe the primary cause for the early spike was due to subprime lending practices – meaning people were sold homes that they couldn’t afford, with artificially low monthly mortgage payments, and when the balloon payment came due, many homes went into foreclosure. Starting in 2009, more of the foreclosures were attributed to people losing their jobs during the recession. The good news is that the worst is over and the number of foreclosures is once again dropping to levels expected in a more healthy housing market. More good news is that a majority of homes that went into foreclosure have been bought, improved where needed, and have been successfully re-sold. So the housing market is rebounding partly because formerly foreclosed homes are considered to be more affordable than newly built homes, which means more families without high incomes can afford to buy a home. Construction permits are also slowly increasing in the county. Keep in mind that while the foreclosure rate increase looks very large, the number of properties foreclosed upon since 2007 represents only a small percentage – about 7% -- of all residential parcels in the County. (And, Dakota County as well as the rest of the Metro Area and Minnesota continue to have very high home ownership rates overall). Dakota County: Educational Attainment 54 We are well educated: 40% of adults age 25+ have earned Bachelor's or a Graduate degree Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and American Community Survey How well educated we are tells us something about the quality of workers available in our state and county, and is one of the social factors that is an indicator of a community’s future success. People without at least a high school education are more likely to be low-income and earn less over a lifetime. Compared to the same percentages for the state of Minnesota as a whole and the nation, we in Dakota County are quite well-educated. This is another of many reasons why a well-educated community is important: A study out of Arizona released a year ago estimates that the 18,000 students who dropped out of high school during the last year in Arizona will cost the state $7.6 billion during their adult lives mostly due to incarceration and financial or medical public assistance, all of which are more likely for dropouts than for those who finish high school. (that’s more than $422,000 each on average). This data covers all adults over the age of 25 for the whole county. It compares 2010 and 2013 with 2000 data, and you can see that not much has changed. all of these slight changes are well within the margin of error. The high school graduation rate is very high in DC and pretty much uniform across all of our communities, so it makes for a boring graph. Countywide, the high school graduation rate is around 95% and in our county, we have been within a percentage point of that figure for many years. Data analysts consider the age of 25 and above to be appropriate for this measure because it allows for people who don’t complete traditional high school to re-consider the importance of completing their education by earning a GED. 54 Dakota County Educational Attainment A steady gap became worse after the recession 55 Source: American Community Survey The data show that a clear gap of at least 10% (2007) -- and usually more – has existed at least since the middle of the last decade in the people who have a college or graduate degree among people of color versus Whites. In fact, the gap got worse in 2013, and the drop looks as though it’s more than could be explained by an artifact of the Margin of error. 55 Crimes in Dakota County Drug-related crimes, especially meth, affect crime rate 56 Source: Dakota County Attorney’s Office In general, for the last 10 – 15 years, the overall crime rate has been dropping in Dakota County. And, our crime rate has been lower than that of the state as a whole. It’s also true that by the FBI classification for crimes, the less serious make up a bigger proportion of the overall crime rate. However, the segment of the crimes committed in Dakota County that are serious, violent crimes – that has been increasing. So overall the number of crimes has been decreasing but more of them are the violent variety – not a good trend. Monica Jensen – one of those who you probably all know well and who organized this gathering – works for the Dakota County Attorney’s Office and she sent this data. You can find more information about the County Attorney and his office at their website. The trend lines on this chart are the number of adults who have been charged with any type of crime on top, then the line for the drug-related crimes (either alcohol or other chemicals) that have been charged seen in blue, and the trend line on the bottom of the graph shows the portion of the drug-related crimes that are due to meth – which is going up slightly. So one way of looking at this data is that meth is responsible for more than one-tenth of the overall crimes charged. Lots of us may have thought that when the legislature passed restrictions on buying the precursor substances – the ingredients needed to cook meth – that the meth problem would go away. It didn’t – I bet our sheriff would tell you that criminals are nothing if not enterprising and they’ve just turned to importing meth instead of making it here. Juvenile picture: mirrors adults – 4% drop from 2013 to 2014 in # juvenile offenders charged, but in same time frame, those charged with a felony-level crime increased by 37%. 56