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<br />Scenario 2: Projections Based on Respondents Who Would <br />Definitel J Probabl J or Ma be Join the YMCA <br /> <br />Scenario 2 differs from Scenario 1 in that we also include the respondents who stated they <br />would probably or maybe join the YMCA in the proJectionsc Figure 23 displays the maximum <br />potential new memberships; these numbers are used as the basis for this scenario. <br /> <br />FIGURE 23 <br /> <br />Maximum Potential New Memberships Based On <br />Respondents' Likelihood To Join The New YMCA <br /> <br /> i Maximum Potential <br /> , <br /> New Memberships <br /> LOCATION 1: LOCATION 2: <br /> YMCA Near High YMCA Near Regina <br /> School Hospital <br />Definitely Join the <br />YMCA 1096 Memberships 1388 Memberships <br />Probably Join the <br />YMCA , 1826 Memberships 1753 Memberships <br />I <br />Maybe Join the <br />YMCA 2045 Memberships 1826 Memberships <br />Total MAXIMUM <br />Potential New 4967 i\fj,,,"I1. '~rC:lC". .1;'(," ~) :":Y'!!)f.>f ~:>I"l!DS <br />Memberships <br /> <br />OBTAINABLE MEMBERSHIPS: As stated above, the maximum potential new memberships <br />represents the best-case scenario by assuming that all prospective members who stated that <br />they definitely, probably, or maybe will join will actually join. For this scenario, we have one <br />assumption regarding the percentages of respondents who will actually join the YMCA as <br />presented below: <br /> <br /> Definitely Join Probably Join Mavbe Join <br />Assumption 65% of the maximum 40% of the maximum 15% of the maximum <br /> projected new projected new projected new <br /> members members members <br /> <br />Figure 24 represents the membership projections for the two locations based on the <br />assumption stated above. <br /> <br />~,Niebuhr &Associates, Inc. <br />2000 Hastings YMCA Study <br /> <br />31 <br />